# baseball 2008



## odun (Nov 9, 2003)

lets get the discussion going..

it is way too early for me to predict a world series champion.

the red sox basically return everyone.

the tigers are going to be fantastic. they made some great off season moves. and i still think curtis granderson is one of the most underrated players in the game.

things are a little more muddled in the nl. i hope my cubs can make some noise. arizona and san diego will have very tough teams...as will the rockies.


----------



## PGVan (May 22, 2004)

I hope the Jays are still shopping Rios around for another arm. I think a lot of the Jays success will depend on how Rolen does. 

That, and who doesn't want to see the old retro baby blues!!! :clap


----------



## brimontz (Nov 10, 2003)

The Indians retrun everyone as well. The Tigers did improve, but pitching is still a big question mark for them.

Brian


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

It would be a good story if the Cubs could win the World Series, being the 100th anniversary of the 1908 team, although I like the Mets chances with Santana. NL West should be a good 4 team race.
The AL looks like 4 teams for 3 spots again, with the Angeles printing playoff tickets by July. I know Seattle added Bedard, but their offense doesn't look very strong and I think they're going to regret trading Adam Jones. Bos/NYY & Cle/Det, flip a coin. Look out for Tampa Bay, I think this may be the year they finally reach .500.


----------



## beanman80 (Oct 11, 2006)

well I know my Red Sox are going to the playoffs and I see a high possibility of a world series ring again. But yeah sooner or later the cubs really need to win a world series, I mean I feel bad for them since I suffered for sooo long as an avid red sox fans.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

PGVan said:


> I hope the Jays are still shopping Rios around for another arm. I think a lot of the Jays success will depend on how Rolen does.


I think this team will pitch extremely well. So far that's been borne out in the first eleven games. How the Jays ultimately do depends entirely on how well they hit, I think.



> That, and who doesn't want to see the old retro baby blues!!! :clap


:yes


----------



## brimontz (Nov 10, 2003)

The Tigers certainly aren't living up to their payroll thus far. Cleveland's not doing much better at 5-7, but at least they aren't paying as much as Detroit is for a 2-9 record that is deceiving -- they could just as easily be 0-11.

Brian


----------



## sully20 (Mar 12, 2005)

brimontz said:


> The Tigers certainly aren't living up to their payroll thus far. Cleveland's not doing much better at 5-7, but at least they aren't paying as much as Detroit is for a 2-9 record that is deceiving -- they could just as easily be 0-11.


It's a nice change to see the Royals and White Sox on top of the divison so far this season.


----------



## brimontz (Nov 10, 2003)

Well, I'm not a fan of Chicago -- it wasn't that long ago that they won it all, but I've been a fan of KC since the 70s when Brett was at his peak. Chicago is too big of a market for me to root for in this sport where the top markets can still outspend everyone else.

Brian


----------



## odun (Nov 9, 2003)

brimontz said:


> Well, I'm not a fan of Chicago -- it wasn't that long ago that they won it all, but I've been a fan of KC since the 70s when Brett was at his peak. Chicago is too big of a market for me to root for in this sport where the top markets can still outspend everyone else.
> 
> Brian


i am a fan of chicago...the cubs.

i do like the royals, as i like most small market teams. i remember brett. i even remember the pine tar incident and the sitting out of a game due to hemmorhoids!


----------



## Gerard (Feb 3, 2004)

I have no favorite this season yet.

And of course, San Francisco is not doing well.

Ok. You can throw your Barry Zito jokes now.


----------



## WineKitty (Nov 26, 2004)

GO TIGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## BeachGaBulldog (Feb 13, 2007)

The Braves are my team. Escobar has played great. Chipper, well, what else can you say? AWESOME! Everybody has played pretty well, and the pitching has been solid. The bullpen has pulled its weight. Kotsay was a great addition. I never liked Andruw "Mr. Strikeout" Jones, and was praying the Bravos wouldn't resign him. He is stubborn, and always tries to pull everything. The competition between the Marlins, Phillies, Mets and us will be fun all season. GO BRAVOS!


----------



## conscious (Oct 14, 2004)

im a met fan, i don't think they will do much this year. we dont even have a minor league to look forward to.


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

conscious said:


> im a met fan, i don't think they will do much this year. we dont even have a minor league to look forward to.


It's still early. I think they'll get into a hot streak at some point but it sounds like Willie could be in trouble if they don't turn it around soon.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Figure I'd revive this thread now that it's August...



Zephyr said:


> PGVan said:
> 
> 
> > I hope the Jays are still shopping Rios around for another arm. I think a lot of the Jays success will depend on how Rolen does.
> ...


Jeez I hate being right. One of these decades the Jays will get their hitting and pitching together. It's got to happen by chance sometime, right? This staff was good enough.

Well, what else is going on? Tampa's still leading the AL East. Boston trades Ramirez. Minnesota has come out of nowhere to lead a division. Detroit's been a flop. Seattle's been a bigger flop (though I thought they were overrated at the beginning of the year).

In the NL we have the Cubs doing well, but I'm sure they'll be Bartmanned at some point. Milwaukee, for the first time in what must be twenty years, actually seems kind of interesting.

Any picks for for ROY, Cy Young, MVPs? What'll you think will happen going down the stretch? I open the floor to you.......


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

The Jays definitely have good pitching but it's kind of a problem when your leading HR threat is Matt Stairs. In retrospect they probably should have just kept Glaus and Thomas
I'd love to see the Rays win the east but the team that's surprised me the most is the Twins. I didn't expect them to still be in it this late, but now that they've had the sense to dump Livan for Liriano I think they can be taken seriously. Especially since their main competition is a team that thinks Ken Griffey Jr. can still play centerfield!


----------



## brimontz (Nov 10, 2003)

I lost interest in this season the moment the Indians lost their Number 2 and 3 starters and their 3 and 4 hitters to injuries and then gave up and traded away their Number 1 starter (Sabathia) and their 5th or 6th hitter (Blake).

Brian


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Tungsten said:


> The Jays definitely have good pitching but it's kind of a problem when your leading HR threat is Matt Stairs. In retrospect they probably should have just kept Glaus and Thomas


Glaus wanted out because the field turf here exacerbated his foot problem. LaRussa didn't like Rolen in St. Louis so it just became a one-for-one challenge trade. It was all contingent on the condition of Rolen's shoulder: as most people know he had been a terrific hitter as well as an astonishing fielder for years, but has had three separate surgeries on his shoulder in as many years. Two of the last three seasons he hasn't hit well at all either, ostensibly because of that. He started out well here but really hit tough times in July and now he's missed several games lately because, you guessed it, the shoulder's acting up. He's still a GG calibre fielder but it's too bad that he might never be the hitter he was. He was better than Glaus at his peak. Frank Thomas got off to his typical horrible start, wouldn't accept a demotion in the order, so the Jays cut him. There's a feeling that it also had to do with avoiding an incentive clause, whereby he would have made several million more dollars had he reached a certain number of plate appearances. As it was Oakland picked him up, he started hitting well, then injured himself on a double and just came back recently. Who knows how that would have played out. The Jays lineup is in a weird place...no obvious horrible holes, but no studs either. It's a whole lot of meh. It's a tough thing to fix.



> I'd love to see the Rays win the east but the team that's surprised me the most is the Twins. I didn't expect them to still be in it this late, but now that they've had the sense to dump Livan for Liriano I think they can be taken seriously. Especially since their main competition is a team that thinks Ken Griffey Jr. can still play centerfield!


One thing that's really helped Minnesota is their situational hitting, which has simply been through the roof. They're hitting 278/335/411 overall, but 316/387/467 with RISP. As anyone who's studied the issue will tell you, having that much of a difference between RISP and overall numbers is bound to be luck (of the good variety, in this case). Twins blogger extraordinaire Aaron Gleeman has a good piece on it here:

http://www.aarongleeman.com/2008_07_06_baseballblog_archive.html
Just scroll down to the July 7 entry. Of course, (finally) dumping Livan Hernandez for Liriano is going to help.


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

Zephyr said:


> One thing that's really helped Minnesota is their situational hitting, which has simply been through the roof. They're hitting 278/335/411 overall, but 316/387/467 with RISP. As anyone who's studied the issue will tell you, having that much of a difference between RISP and overall numbers is bound to be luck (of the good variety, in this case). Twins blogger extraordinaire Aaron Gleeman has a good piece on it here:
> 
> http://www.aarongleeman.com/2008_07_06_baseballblog_archive.html
> Just scroll down to the July 7 entry. Of course, (finally) dumping Livan Hernandez for Liriano is going to help.


That's interesting about the Twins, I didn't know that they were hitting so well with RISP. I was looking over their lineup and thought it was strange that they were 5th in the league in runs scored considering that their lineup, other than C and 1B, is pretty bad. 
One interesting thing I found was that their team ERA is 3.29 at home and 5.65 on the road. Any clue on why this is? I thought the Metrodome was supposed to be a hitters park. At least it used to be. 
Anyway, their pythag record is still 60-54, so they're still a decent team, even if they've been a bit lucky so far. Now that Livan is gone and they've started to bench Lamb I think they're probably an 88-90 win team, which could be enough.


----------



## Gerard (Feb 3, 2004)

With my local teams, the Giants and A's are doing horribly.

Oh well. I haven't really bother watching and following, but I will indeed watch a bit of the playoffs and World Series.

- Gerard


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

> One interesting thing I found was that their team ERA is 3.29 at home and 5.65 on the road. Any clue on why this is? I thought the Metrodome was supposed to be a hitters park. At least it used to be.


I don't know. Check out their park factors on bbrf:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2008.shtml

Multi-year factors have the Metrodome as a strong pitcher's park. I do know it was the 'homerdome' back in the eighties, but that was a different era. Compared to a lot of parks now it doesn't strike me as being particularly hitter friendly.


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

I probably overrated the Twins a bit in my last post. I forgot to consider that their pythagorean record is also skewed by the clutch hitting effect since it uses runs scored. For some reason I was thinking it used estimated runs. I still think they have a shot at the division but I'm not as confident as I was the other day.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Tungsten said:


> I probably overrated the Twins a bit in my last post. I forgot to consider that their pythagorean record is also skewed by the clutch hitting effect since it uses runs scored. For some reason I was thinking it used estimated runs. I still think they have a shot at the division but I'm not as confident as I was the other day.


Right, that's a straight pythag using real runs scored/allowed. Baseball Prospectus has some adjusted standings:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

The W1/L1 column is the pythagorean record based on actual runs. The W2/L2 is a pythagorean calculation based on estimated runs and W3/L3 takes that and adjusts for strength of schedule. Anyway, we can see it clearly here: as I write this Minnesota has scored 571 runs, while the estimates have them scoring only 524, or 536 when schedule adjusted. That's huge. They're a little better on runs allowed too but much more in line with the estimates. All of which is to say, the Minnesota Twins must've done some mighty fine sacrificing to the baseball gods.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

So, it's the second straight year the Mets entered the final day of the regular season tied for a playoff spot and lost out. At least this year it didn't follow quite the same collapse in order to get to that point. 

Milwaukee is in the postseason for the first time since sometime in the eighties.

Twins and White Sox both win, which means Chicago must win their make up game tomorrow in order to force a tiebreaker on Tuesday.


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

I can't believe the Mets blew it again! I'm so bummed out I can't even think about baseball right now. I curse Alexander Cartwright or Doubleday or whoever invented this blasted game!

I guess I'm going to be rooting for the Cubs in the playoffs. It's been 100 years, I think it's about time for them to win another.


----------



## brimontz (Nov 10, 2003)

I'm glad Milwaukee made it -- it gives Cleveland control over who they get as the last piece to the Sabathia trade.

A year with no NY teams in the post-season. That's so good it almost makes up for the fact that Cleveland ended up at .500 after just missing the World Series last season.

Brian


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

Wow, the Cubs are in trouble already. The Dodgers are looking like a pretty impressive team.

Tampa Bay has been a good story this year, but I have to admit that as a Mets fan, if I witness Scott Kazmir leading the Rays to a World Series Championship I'm probably going to need to go on blood pressure meds. Damn you Jim Duquette!


----------



## PGVan (May 22, 2004)

The Dodgers are winning the World Series. They are peaking at the right time. Manny is hitting shoelace homeruns and he even beat out a ground ball for an infield single last night! 

I would love to see Manny hit the World Series winning homerun at Fenway. I would drink to that!


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

I really, _really_ hope LA doesn't win it. It would be like the Cardinals in 2006....bleh. Mediocre team that won a weak division, then peaked at the right time. No thanks.

The Cubs have looked really bad, surprisingly so. They were a dominant home team this year, going 55-26 and outscoring opponents 454-339. They've come up really flat at the worst time, and now they have to win a couple on the road.

Actually, now that I look at things a little deeper, I wonder if the problem is that they were on cruise control the last month of the season and now are having difficulty flipping the switch into postseason overdrive. LA was fighting for a playoff spot all along, so they've really been in playoff mode for a month or two now. Chicago had things pretty much wrapped up earlier, and despite having a really great season, went just 12-12 in September and were actually outscored by a few runs. The Dodgers meanwhile went 17-8 in Sept and are just carrying that through.

Same thing might happen to the Angels in the AL.


----------



## brimontz (Nov 10, 2003)

The only way I'd like to see Boston back in the World Series would be to see Manny stick it to them. Boston fans would try getting on his nerves, but they'll forget that Manny is so dumb, he won't even notice they're booing at him, and he'll hit a grand slam. (And I don't even like Manny, but I've grown weary of Boston fans who kissed his rear for the past 7-8 years now attacking him.)

Brian


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

Zephyr said:


> I really, _really_ hope LA doesn't win it. It would be like the Cardinals in 2006....bleh. Mediocre team that won a weak division, then peaked at the right time. No thanks.


I agree that they were mediocre for most of the year but when you replace Juan Pierre with Manny, add Casey Blake for third and get Furcal back from the DL all of a sudden you've got a pretty good offense. And don't forget they had the best team ERA in the NL.

It's kind of odd for 83-84 win teams to win it all but in the wildcard era it's going to happen sometimes. Not much you can do about it, though I would like to see them make the first round best of 7.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Tungsten said:


> Zephyr said:
> 
> 
> > I really, _really_ hope LA doesn't win it. It would be like the Cardinals in 2006....bleh. Mediocre team that won a weak division, then peaked at the right time. No thanks.
> ...


But that's the thing - they were mediocre for the first five months of the season, and that would have killed them anywhere else. Yeah they're better now, but even the month immediately following the trade deadline they weren't. They went into September under .500, had a good month, and made it in. Pretty much any other division and that 17-8 September wouldn't have mattered a lick, because they already would have been dead and buried. As it was they only won 84 games and like I said in the other thread, there were no fewer than seven other teams in MLB that won more games that didn't even get to October.



> It's kind of odd for 83-84 win teams to win it all but in the wildcard era it's going to happen sometimes. Not much you can do about it, though I would like to see them make the first round best of 7.


Not much you can do about it unless you make big changes. Something like...get rid of divisions, return to a balanced sched, and the top four teams in each league make the postseason, and all series are best of 7 (at least).


----------



## WinterDave (Dec 5, 2003)

I would like to see Manny and the Dodgers play at Fenway Park in the World Series too, but I think that the games would turn out quite differently than others here have predicted.National League baseball teams are like sheep sent to the slaughter.... :lol I am more worried about Tampa Bay!


----------



## anonymid (Oct 16, 2005)

brimontz said:


> The only way I'd like to see Boston back in the World Series would be to see Manny stick it to them. Boston fans would try getting on his nerves, but they'll forget that Manny is so dumb, he won't even notice they're booing at him, and he'll hit a grand slam. (And I don't even like Manny, but I've grown weary of Boston fans who kissed his rear for the past 7-8 years now attacking him.)
> 
> Brian


FWIW, I'm a Red Sox fan, but I still love Manny, and I'm rooting for him and Torre to make it to the World Series. And I'd probably root for them to win it against anyone but the Red Sox--and even if they do beat the Red Sox, well, then I'll just tip my cap. It would still be pretty great, after all, to see Torre win this year's World Series, especially with the Yankees not even making the playoffs. I'm glad he has a weapon like Manny to help him do it.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Poor Cubs fans.


----------



## PGVan (May 22, 2004)

Zephyr said:


> Poor Cubs fans.


I don't feel bad for them. The atmosphere at Wrigley Field during this series sucked. The team is partly responsible too. Call me old fashioned if you wish, but on top of the visitors dugout, it says, "Welcome to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field." I'm sorry, this is professional sports. I'm not saying sportsmanship doesn't have its place, but at the same time, professional sports is about winning. Fans shouldn't be there to be friendly to the visiting team. They should be providing an intimidating atmosphere for the visiting team. What do Cubs fans ever do? Throw the visitors' home run balls back onto the field? Wow, that's some scary **** right there. Manny Ramirez should have picked up the balls that got thrown back in Games 1 and 2, signed them, and chucked them back into the crowd.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Well lookee here, we're getting that Tampa-Boston ALCS matchup I wanted. I think these are the two best teams in the AL this year, so it should be good. I haven't anticipated a postseason series as much as this one in quite a while.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

PGVan said:


> Zephyr said:
> 
> 
> > Poor Cubs fans.
> ...


None of that stopped them from winning 55 games at home this year. They just played badly in October, which can happen in a short series.


----------



## PGVan (May 22, 2004)

Zephyr said:


> None of that stopped them from winning 55 games at home this year. They just played badly in October, which can happen in a short series.


Regular season isn't playoffs. The Cubs have always been useless in October, and I think the fans not stepping up their support plays a role. Yeah, they show up, but that's about it.

101 years doesn't lie.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

PGVan said:


> Zephyr said:
> 
> 
> > None of that stopped them from winning 55 games at home this year. They just played badly in October, which can happen in a short series.
> ...


The performance of the players ultimately does rest with the fans, certainly. I was just trying to divert attention away from their staggering inability to will their team to victory after September 30th every year. I suggest they get some pointers from Red Sox fans about how they suddenly turned around their ninety year drought, or the Rays "fans," who seem to have figured things out pretty quickly. Maybe that's the ticket - stay away in droves all season so you don't use up all the good karma.

Or perhaps they should just pepper the opposing players with batteries, like they do in Philadelphia. That might be intimidating. Or at least annoying.



> 101 years doesn't lie.


It's because of what is written on the dugout roof. They really should change some of those words.


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

Their problem is that they have too many sad-sack 80 and 90 year olds who've yet to see their team win a World Series. The older fans clearly don't want it badly enough! Maybe Pinella could give them a pep-talk!


----------



## Iron Butterfly (Nov 13, 2007)

It seems that people underestimate the Phillies. They have a great team. It's ironic how all the teams that had the best season were beat too easily in the playoffs. Either way, it's gonna be fun to watch the World Series.


----------



## brimontz (Nov 10, 2003)

Zephyr said:


> Poor Cubs fans.


Screw Cubs fans. Most of them are Bulls fans. They've enjoyed their share of championships in recent years.

Brian


----------



## brimontz (Nov 10, 2003)

Tungsten said:


> Their problem is that they have too many sad-sack 80 and 90 year olds who've yet to see their team win a World Series. The older fans clearly don't want it badly enough! Maybe Pinella could give them a pep-talk!


Again, Cubs fans don't know pain. Live in Cleveland and experience pain when it comes to sports teams. No championships in any major sport since 1964 when the Browns last won. Indians not in 60 years. Cavs never. Cleveland's brief fling with the NHL in the 70s -- no there as well.

Brian


----------



## Iron Butterfly (Nov 13, 2007)

:hug for Brian. I agree Cleveland has had it bad... really bad. I thought it was gonna be the Cubs vs. Red Sox.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Wow, Tampa spanks Bosox in their own yard. If Boston didn't know they had their hands full in this series before, they do now.

Ortiz is continuing to look bad. Beckett has pitched horribly. Tampa is just going out there and winning games in robot-like fashion like they've done all year. Right now they're looking pretty tough.

PS I'm not a great fan of a lot of these announcers. And now I get to listen to Tim McCarver and Joe Buck for the NLCS game. Ugh. At least McCarver is a little more palatable when Derek Jeter isn't around for him to fawn over.


----------



## anonymid (Oct 16, 2005)

Zephyr said:


> PS I'm not a great fan of a lot of these announcers.


I think Ron Darling is doing a pretty great job.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Whoa three bombs off Wakefield makes it 5-0 Tampa in the third, and they've already gone to the middle relief. Boston has to win this or they're likely toast.

*edit* 11-1 now.



anonymid said:


> Zephyr said:
> 
> 
> > PS I'm not a great fan of a lot of these announcers.
> ...


Is this the first year for him? He hasn't been bad. Or at least, I guess I haven't noticed him that much, which is better than making my ears bleed.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Unreal. That's Fenway for you. 7-0 all for naught, and now going back south.

This Tampa/Boston series might yet turn into a classic.


----------



## Cake (Jan 9, 2008)

are the red sox ****ing kidding me?? how the hell do they do this?? why must they make me suffer?? 

p.s. **** BOSTON!!!!!


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Tampa wins a tight 3-1 game to take it.

That ended up being a heck of a series.


----------



## Cake (Jan 9, 2008)

Zephyr said:


> Tampa wins a tight 3-1 game to take it.
> 
> That ended up being a heck of a series.


yep. best series i can remember in a while.

now lets go PHILS!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## kikachuck (Nov 10, 2003)

Zephyr said:


> Tampa wins a tight 3-1 game to take it.
> 
> That ended up being a heck of a series.


Speaking for all semi-casual baseball fans everywhere I ask, does something seem not right about the Rays going from one of the premiere basement dwellers to having a legit shot at the title in one season? Where's the struggle? You have to make the fans suffer a bit for their team, don't you think haha.


----------



## brimontz (Nov 10, 2003)

Tell me about it.

My dream of Torre and Manny sticking it to the Yanks and Red Sox by winning it all hit a snag, though. No offense to the Rays, but I'd rather see the Phillies win -- not because of all of this talk about long-suffering Philadelphia sports fans (try living in Cleveland) -- but because I think Charlie Manuel is a good man who was treated shabbily at the end of his tenure with the Indians.

Brian


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

I have to pull for the Rays. The fact that a team can have the worst record in baseball in 2006 and 2007 and then have a chance of winning the World Series in 2008 is just amazing.


----------



## Gerard (Feb 3, 2004)

I'm rooting for the Rays.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

kikachuck said:


> Speaking for all semi-casual baseball fans everywhere I ask, does something seem not right about the Rays going from one of the premiere basement dwellers to having a legit shot at the title in one season? Where's the struggle? You have to make the fans suffer a bit for their team, don't you think haha.


I don't know, but these Florida teams have had weird stuff going on. The Marlins were not very good upon entering the league, then in 1997 everything came together and they not only finished over .500 for the first time, but won the WS. They quickly firesaled that team off, and were absolutely putrid once again (including going 54-108 the very next year). They had a few more losing seasons, then won the WS again in 2003. To that point, the Marlins had had only two .500+ seasons in their history, and in both of them they not only made the playoffs but won the whole shebang.

Now you have Tampa who came into the AL in 1998, and played about .400 baseball for ten straight years. Their _best _season was 2004 in which they finished 70-91, and it was the only time they'd finished higher than last in the AL East...when they were second last. Then everything comes together this year, they win 97 games and are now just three wins until a World Series title. Talk about skipping steps.


----------



## kikachuck (Nov 10, 2003)

Zephyr said:


> I don't know, but these Florida teams have had weird stuff going on. The Marlins were not very good upon entering the league, then in 1997 everything came together and they not only finished over .500 for the first time, but won the WS. They quickly firesaled that team off, and were absolutely putrid once again (including going 54-108 the very next year). They had a few more losing seasons, then won the WS again in 2003. To that point, the Marlins had had only two .500+ seasons in their history, and in both of them they not only made the playoffs but won the whole shebang.


If one wanted to really study the economics of pro baseball, the Florida Marlins would certainly be an interesting case study. For all the evidence that the Yankees provide that you can't buy a World Series team, I think the Marlins show just as much that you can.

I sort of half watched the game the other day and couldn't help but compare the WS experience of the Marlins and the Rays. The Rays stadium was full, with Rays fans judging by the clothes they were wearing, which tells me that those guys in Tampa are the biggest bunch of bandwagon jumpers ever. The Marlins "fans" are at least honest. They don't show up even during the World Series :lol


----------



## EagerMinnow84 (Sep 1, 2007)

kikachuck said:


> The Marlins "fans" are at least honest. They don't show up even during the World Series :lol


I think the Tampa fans didn't even know they had a baseball team until a month ago. 

I am still sad that the Cubs horribly choked yet again in the postseason. Its weird that the Angels and Cubs, the two teams that had the best records in baseball, didn't even make it to the A/NLCS.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

EagerMinnow84 said:


> I am still sad that the Cubs horribly choked yet again in the postseason. Its weird that the Angels and Cubs, the two teams that had the best records in baseball, didn't even make it to the A/NLCS.


I don't find it weird in the Angels case. They weren't nearly as good as their record, and I thought all year were pretty overrated. They might in fact be the flimsiest 100-win team I've seen recently. Their third-order win/loss record (Pythagorean record based on runs scored and allowed ratio adjusted for schedule strength) was only 84-78 according to Baseball Prospectus. Their +68 run differential was only sixth best in the AL, after Boston (+151), Toronto (+104), Tampa (+103), Minnesota (+84), and White Sox (+82). All in all I think they smoke and mirrored their way to a hundred wins and their luck ran out against a better team.

Personally I'm kind of glad they got turfed in the first round, if only because of that stupid deal they signed Gary Matthews Jr to a couple years ago.


----------



## brimontz (Nov 10, 2003)

Congrats to the Phillies. I always thought the Indians treated Charlie Manuel shabbily, so it was good to see his team win it.

The added benefit is that I'll no longer have to listen to the national media whining about how long Philly had gone between sports championships (25 years) when Cleveland has gone 44 years since the Browns last won it all in 1964.

Brian


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

Well, Game 5 was finally completed. That play by Utley to nail Bartlett at home in the top of the seventh was huge. It wasn't really his fault though as the 3B coach was waving him in the whole way, which was a huge mistake. That ended the inning and Burrell opened the bottom with a double (leaving the lefty Howell in to face a lefty-masher like Burrell was another mistake) leading to the eventual winning run. 

I don't think Philly was a better team than Tampa this year but they played better in the series, all RISP hitting aside.

It was actually a little to fun to watch a game that began halfway through the sixth, so it ended at a decent hour. I don't like the way baseball conducts things during the playoffs, and starting the games so late is one of them.


----------



## anonymid (Oct 16, 2005)

*award picks*

Well, now that the World Series is over (congrat to the Phillies), the regular-season award announcements are the the next big thing. Here's who I would vote for:

MVP
AL: Joe Mauer, Twins
NL: Albert Pujols, Cardinals

CY YOUNG
AL: Cliff Lee, Indians
NL: Johan Santana, Mets

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
AL: Even Longoria, Rays
NL: Geovany Soto, Cubs

MANAGER OF THE YEAR
AL: Joe Maddon, Rays
NL: Lou Piniella, Cubs

--

The AL MVP and NL Cy Young are the most intriguing races to me . . .


----------



## Tungsten (Dec 11, 2005)

anonymid said:


> Well, now that the World Series is over (congrat to the Phillies), the regular-season award announcements are the the next big thing. Here's who I would vote for:
> 
> MVP
> AL: Joe Mauer, Twins
> ...


I pretty much agree with all your picks. I think you could make a good case that Sabathia deserves the Cy Young in the NL. I know he only made 17 starts for Milwaukee, but the way he carried that team down the stretch was incredible. Santana is deserving as well but I'm afraid that they're going to give it to Webb or Lidge.

AL MVP should be Mauer or Sizemore. I'll give a slight edge to Mauer.

Maddon of course is manager of the year but he didn't impress me at all in the World Series. Some of his moves were head scratchers to say the least.
Manuel deserves consideration for NL manager of the year as well. It's too bad you can't take the playoffs into consideration when voting.


----------



## anonymid (Oct 16, 2005)

Tungsten said:


> I pretty much agree with all your picks. I think you could make a good case that Sabathia deserves the Cy Young in the NL. I know he only made 17 starts for Milwaukee, but the way he carried that team down the stretch was incredible. Santana is deserving as well but I'm afraid that they're going to give it to Webb or Lidge.
> 
> AL MVP should be Mauer or Sizemore. I'll give a slight edge to Mauer.
> 
> ...


I agree about Maddon. His biggest mistake of all was leaving Price in the bullpen as long as he did in the resumption of game 5. Price should have been out there from the get-go, IMHO. And then to not even bring him in in the 7th--I really don't know what Maddon was thinking.

I hear what you're saying about Sabathia, but I just can't quite bring myself to give it to a guy who only made 17 starts. It wouldn't be unprecedented, though; I believe Rick Sutcliffe won the '84 NL Cy Young after being traded from an AL team mid-season. So C.C. might get rewarded for his half-season of brilliance. I do agree that Webb and Lidge are the (undeserving) likely frontrunners, though. But it really should be a race between Santana and Tim Lincecum. Either of those two would be a deserving winner.


----------



## anonymid (Oct 16, 2005)

I just looked up Sutcliffe's '84 numbers: in 15 starts for Cleveland, he went 4-5 with a 5.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.664--awful. Then he was traded to the Cubs, for whom he went 16-1 in 20 starts with 150 IP, an ERA of 2.69, and a WHIP of 1.078. And indeed he won the NL Cy Young. So there is a precedent if one wants to make the argument for Sabathia this year.


----------



## Mr. Orange (Apr 20, 2008)

anonymid said:


> I hear what you're saying about Sabathia, but I just can't quite bring myself to give it to a guy who only made 17 starts. It wouldn't be unprecedented, though; I believe Rick Sutcliffe won the '84 NL Cy Young after being traded from an AL team mid-season. So C.C. might get rewarded for his half-season of brilliance. I do agree that Webb and Lidge are the (undeserving) likely frontrunners, though. But it really should be a race between Santana and Tim Lincecum. Either of those two would be a deserving winner.


I agree about Webb not being deserving...the voters tend to put too much emphasis on wins. But Lidge is a strong candidate. Didn't blow a save, and his numbers are staggering, even though they don't give it to closers very often.


----------



## anonymid (Oct 16, 2005)

Mr. Orange said:


> I agree about Webb not being deserving...the voters tend to put too much emphasis on wins. But Lidge is a strong candidate. Didn't blow a save, and his numbers are staggering, even though they don't give it to closers very often.


I wouldn't say his numbers are staggering. He was certainly the best closer in the NL this year, but he did walk 35 guys in 69 1/3--that's an awful lot. His WHIP of 1.226 was good, but not great for a closer.

Lidge and K-Rod are going to be the two best-remembered closers from this season, but the two best closers in baseball this year were Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan. Rivera walked only six (6!) batters in in 70 2/3 innings, had a WHIP of 0.665(!) and an ERA of 1.40. Now those are staggering numbers. Nathan had an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 0.901. And then there's Joakim Soria and Jonathan Papelbon, both of whom arguably were more dominant than K-Rod and Lidge, too (though Papelbon not quite as much as he'd been the previous couple years--still, he only walked eight guys in 69 1/3 and had a WHIP of 0.952).

In general, I'm not keen on seriously considering relievers for the Cy Young--comparing them with starters is too much of an apples-and-oranges thing, IMHO. I think there needs to be a separate award for reliever of the year, and not that Rolaids award or whatever with its ridiculous points system.


----------



## Zephyr (Nov 8, 2003)

anonymid said:


> In general, I'm not keen on seriously considering relievers for the Cy Young--comparing them with starters is too much of an apples-and-oranges thing, IMHO. I think there needs to be a separate award for reliever of the year, and not that Rolaids award or whatever with its ridiculous points system.


I've always been for that idea. Create a new award for relievers, and have it voted on, the same way the Cy Young, MVP, ROTY etc are done. It's already damn hard for relievers to win it, might as well create another category to recognize them.

On the subject of Lidge, I thought his career might go downhill after he gave up that game winning Pujols homerun in the NLCS back in 2005. The followup season he was pretty bad: 5.28 era, 10 hr in 75 innings, 1.4 whip. But the last couple years he recovered, and this year had a sub-2.00 era and was 41/41 in save opportunities, then perfect as well throughout the playoffs.

One thing jumped out at me when looking at his 2008 splits: righthanded hitters, in 133 PA, hit .105/.227/.175. Yeah: a buck oh-five.


----------



## Mr. Orange (Apr 20, 2008)

anonymid said:


> I wouldn't say his numbers are staggering. He was certainly the best closer in the NL this year, but he did walk 35 guys in 69 1/3--that's an awful lot. His WHIP of 1.226 was good, but not great for a closer.


I think that his numbers are most impressive if you look at what he did down the stretch. In his last 15 appearances of the regular season, he posted a 0.61 ERA, recording 10 saves and racking up 20 Ks in 14.2 IP. This included 6 games against playoff teams/the Mets. If you look at his seasonal ERA of 1.95, and take out that July game where he gave up 5 ER, it drops to a dazzling 1.30 ERA. Even though he did walk a fair amount of hitters, I think that is better than giving up lots of hits, because a single can score a runner on second...a walk cannot. He recorded 92 Ks in the regular season as well, with an 11.94 K/9. I think that is important for a closer, to be able to go in and overpower hitters. I think he is a legitimate contender, and would not be upset if he won it. I do agree the K-Rod is really overrated, and will get overpaid by a ton when he hits the jackpot with whoever he signs.


----------



## anonymid (Oct 16, 2005)

Mr. Orange said:


> I think that his numbers are most impressive if you look at what he did down the stretch. In his last 15 appearances of the regular season, he posted a 0.61 ERA, recording 10 saves and racking up 20 Ks in 14.2 IP. This included 6 games against playoff teams/the Mets. If you look at his seasonal ERA of 1.95, and take out that July game where he gave up 5 ER, it drops to a dazzling 1.30 ERA. Even though he did walk a fair amount of hitters, I think that is better than giving up lots of hits, because a single can score a runner on second...a walk cannot. He recorded 92 Ks in the regular season as well, with an 11.94 K/9. I think that is important for a closer, to be able to go in and overpower hitters. I think he is a legitimate contender, and would not be upset if he won it. I do agree the K-Rod is really overrated, and will get overpaid by a ton when he hits the jackpot with whoever he signs.


Good points about Lidge. It will be interesting to see what kind of season he follows it up with next year.


----------



## Mr. Orange (Apr 20, 2008)

Yeah it will be. He's always impressed me, even when he was struggling down in Houston. I hope he keeps it up. He's fun to watch. I see you are from New England...you a Sox fan?


----------



## anonymid (Oct 16, 2005)

Mr. Orange said:


> Yeah it will be. He's always impressed me, even when he was struggling down in Houston. I hope he keeps it up. He's fun to watch. I see you are from New England...you a Sox fan?


Yeah, I'm a Red Sox fan. And I agree that Lidge is fun to watch; that slider is absolutely devastating. And it's great the way he's come back from the Pujols homer. Got to admire a guy who can revive his career after something like that.


----------



## Mr. Orange (Apr 20, 2008)

Yeah, definitely. I am from Massachusetts, and I'm also a Red Sox fan. I am so excited for this offseason. I have a feeling Theo is going to make some nice deals. I think we need a good pitcher, some bullpen help, and a big bat. I would love to see Lowe make a return.


----------

